RBM-Programme Impact Evaluation: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Abstract

This study employs the Box-Tiao time series modeling approach to assess the impact of the Roll Back Malaria initiative on childhood malaria incidence in a state in Nigeria. Childhood diseases, particularly malaria, significantly contribute to morbidity and mortality in developing countries, with malaria being the leading cause of death among African children. The RBM programme, launched in 1998, aimed to reduce malaria-related mortality by 50% by 2010. An exploratory data analysis revealed a mean incidence rate of 277.69, with significant variability and a right-skewed distribution, highlighting higher incidence cases. This necessitates targeted public health interventions to address these outliers effectively. The intervention model using an ARIMA noise component indicates a substantial decrease in malaria incidence following the RBM intervention, with a rapid return to pre-intervention levels and a delayed intervention effect. The results underscore the importance of sustained public health efforts and adequate funding to combat malaria effectively. This study contributes to understanding malaria dynamics and the efficacy of intervention strategies, offering valuable insights for policymakers in the fight against childhood malaria.